One Third of Shipping Will Opt for Scrubbers -Foreship
Posted by Eric Haun
Ship owners weighing future marine fuel choices after the
International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 2020 0.5 percent
sulphur cap should also consider oil company expectations that up
to 30 percent of commercial shipping will gravitate back to high
sulphur fuel oil by 2030, according to naval architecture and
engineering consultancy Foreship.
With just over 100 ships running on liquefied natural gas (LNG)
today, the number in service is likely to remain below 500 by
2020. At the same time, while the 0.1 percent fuel sulphur
content limit inside emissions control areas has brought 1,500
scrubber installations, yard capacity could only grow that number
to 3,000-4,000 by 2020. Most ships will run on 0.5 percent
sulphur content HFO to meet the cap.
Foreship Head of Machinery Department, Olli Somerkallio,
explained that, post 2020, 0.5 percent sulphur content fuel will
be blended from distillates and HFO of up to 2.5 percent sulphur
content. Higher sulphur HFO (HSHFO) can be used as a marine fuel
where scrubbers are installed, but could also be a substitute
fuel in gas powerplants in former Soviet countries, or a coal
substitute. This will change the pricing dynamic of HSHFO: to
compete with coal, prices would have to be relatively low.
The implication is that HSHFO will return to favor as a marine
fuel after the dust settles. "This will have a significant impact
on the ROI of scrubbers in the future," Somerkallio said.
Foreship offers independent advice on adapting ships for new
marine fuels and emissions abatement, with a reference list that
includes 34 exhaust gas scrubber retrofit projects to enable 13
cruise ships, 11 ro-pax ferries, nine ro-ros and one
containership to burn HFO in ECAs. In this case, work includes
conceptual design, technology and supplier evaluation,
installation feasibility, the classification and basic design
work needed for system integration, plus mechanical, piping,
electrical systems and automation. Foreship also covers
engineering and structural design for equipment foundations and
new tanks, as well as safety plans and stability updates,
supervising detail design and installation during systems
integration.
Foreship has advised customers to select multi-stream or in-line
scrubbers, open loop, closed loop or hybrid systems. The high
opportunity cost of losing sailing time in the cruise market has
seen work planned underway, as well as for ro-ro ship projects
work carried outindock.
"We have faced and overcome a broad range of installation
challenges, including the fact that scrubbers eat into the
revenue-earning space required for passengers or freight,"
Somerkallio said. "We are also very familiar with the equipment
options in the market and supplier references." As well as
needing new pumping, water treatment and tank storage equipment,
exhaust gas scrubbers demand considerable new pipework on board.
Installing inline means that existing silencers need to be
replaced with larger equipment, causing a space challenge for
casing.
"Gaining this experience provides a wealth of independent
experience that owners of cargo ships can draw on as the 2020
global sulphur cap approaches," Somerkallio said. "The track
record is also long enough to understand that ships within the
same project do not always benefit from the same equipment
selection."
Dec 18, 2017